World Cup final preview: England vs. Spain
World-class midfielders headline Sunday's showdown at Stadium Australia
The reigning European champions meet a Spain team that has overcome internal strife in Sunday’s World Cup final. It’s time to set the stage.
Here is a breakdown of the matchup, from what’s at stake for both teams to the game’s x-factor.
Note: All stats are courtesy of fbref.com unless otherwise noted.
What’s at stake
The victor becomes the third European nation and fifth overall to win a women’s World Cup.
England would become the first country on the men’s or women’s side to be European and world champions at the same time since Spain’s men’s team held both titles from 2010-2014.
Spain would win their first major tournament.
Spain would join Japan (2011) as the only teams to lose a group stage game and go on to win the tournament.
Aitana Bonmatí, Lauren Hemp, Jennifer Hermoso, Lauren James, Alba Redondo and Alessia Russo (3) all are two goals behind Golden Boot leader Hinata Miyazawa (5). Sweden’s Amanda Ilestedt enters the third-place game one goal ahead of them (4), and Australia’s Hayley Raso also has three.
Key stats
Spain lead the tournament with an expected goals difference per 90 minutes of 2.47. England are ninth at 0.80.
James’ 1.89 goal involvements per 90 minutes are the most of any player who has played at least 140 minutes at the World Cup. She is eligible to play in the final after serving a two-game suspension.
Spain and England are first and second, respectively, in pass completion percentage at the World Cup.
Spain are averaging the most shot-creating actions (39.32) and goal-creating actions (3.81) per 90 minutes.
Six players from the two teams — Bonmatí, Lucy Bronze, Mariona Caldentey, Salma Paralluelo, Irene Paredes and Keira Walsh — started May’s Champions League final for Barcelona.
The big question: Who gets the lineup and tactics right?
For a variety of reasons, neither Jorge Vilda nor Sarina Wiegman have settled on a consistent starting lineup. Fourteen Spanish players have started at least half the team’s games. James’ suspension and Walsh’s injury mean they haven’t played together much in England’s new 5-3-2 system. Does James get her spot in the 11 back? This game could come down to which manager uses their squad more effectively.
The matchup: Aitana Bonmatí vs. Keira Walsh
They are the engines of their teams and arguably the best two midfielders in the world at the moment. Walsh will be tasked with slowing down Bonmatí and Alexia Putellas while Bonmatí is tied for the team lead with five goal involvements. Stopping Spain’s attack begins with limiting Bonmatí’s influence. Whichever of the Barcelona teammates has a bigger impact is likely going to be the one lifting the trophy.
The x-factor: Salma Paralluelo
Paralleulo has been the definition of an x-factor the past two games, coming off the bench to score crucial goals in both. The last goal Spain scored when the 19-year-old was not on the field came in their second group stage game. She absolutely deserves to start based on her performances, but there is a strong argument she is more valuable coming off the bench because of the way she completely changes games.
England win if … Lauren James picks up where she left off
James looked like the best player at the tournament before getting sent off in the round of 16 against Nigeria. While England don’t need her to be great to win, it’s hard to see how they lose if she is the best player on the field.
Spain win if … the attack shows up and they don’t make mistakes
All of Spain’s possession doesn’t mean anything if they don’t create quality chances and capitalize on them. It is the risk that comes with the way Spanish national teams and Barcelona (both men and women) play. The second part of the statement cannot be overlooked. Lauren Hemp scored an equalizer against Colombia on a goalkeeper miscue and the winner in the semifinal on a miscommunication between Australia’s right back and goalkeeper. England are going to make someone beat them. Nobody has yet.