MLS playoff preview: Determining the true MLS Cup contenders

Which teams are legitimate contenders to win MLS Cup according to recent history?

The Major League Soccer playoffs are known for their chaos and unpredictability. Just two Supporters’ Shield winners have lifted MLS Cup in the last 12 years, and only four No. 1 seeds have reached the final since 2010. Despite the annual series of upsets, there are still some characteristics recent MLS Cup winners have in common. What follows is an attempt to determine what those characteristics are.

In order to do so, a set of criteria was created using five pieces of data from the regular season — goals scored, goals allowed, points per game, expected goals difference and where a team’s top player ranked in the league in goal involvements per 90 minutes. The past five MLS Cup winners and each MLS Cup participant since the formula was created in 2022 met the following criteria. If the pattern is to continue, one of six teams will be lifting MLS Cup on Dec. 7. 

1. At least 1.53 goals per game

The 2019 Seattle Sounders had the least potent attack of the five most recent champions with 52 goals in the 34-game regular season. The Columbus Crew had a similar offensive output in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

Teams eliminated: Atlanta United, Charlotte FC, Houston Dynamo, Seattle Sounders

Teams that meet criteria: Colorado Rapids, Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami, LAFC, L.A. Galaxy, Minnesota United, New York Red Bulls, NYCFC, Orlando City, Real Salt Lake, Vancouver Whitecaps

2. No more than 1.44 goals allowed per game

The 2019 Sounders also had the worst defensive record of the last five MLS Cup winners, conceding 49 goals. Last season’s Columbus Crew were the only other championship team to allow more than 1.12 goals per game.

Teams eliminated: Colorado Rapids, L.A. Galaxy, New York Red Bulls, Orlando City

Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami, LAFC, Minnesota United, NYCFC, Real Salt Lake, Vancouver Whitecaps

3. At least 1.50 points per game

Every team to reach MLS Cup in the past five seasons has been a top-four seed. The only No. 4 seed to win the final was NYCFC in 2021, who averaged exactly 1.5 points per game.

Teams eliminated: NYCFC, Vancouver Whitecaps

Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami, LAFC, Minnesota United, Real Salt Lake 

4. An expected goals difference per 90 minutes of -0.04 or better

Since fbref.com began tracking expected goals data in 2018, five of the six MLS Cup winners finished the regular season with a positive expected goals difference. The exception was Seattle in 2019.

Teams eliminated: None

Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami, LAFC, Minnesota United, Real Salt Lake 

5. Top-16 player in goal involvements per 90 minutes

It is nearly impossible to get through the playoffs without an elite attacking player, which is why MLS Cup routinely features some of the biggest names in the league. Three of the last five winners had a player who ranked in the top 10 in goal involvements per 90 minutes among players logging at least 1,000 minutes. The teams that didn’t were the 2019 Sounders — who had Jordan Morris at 15 and Raúl Ruidíaz at 25 — and LAFC in 2022 — who had Carlos Vela at 16 and Cristian Arango at 21.

Teams eliminated: None

Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami, LAFC, Minnesota United, Real Salt Lake