MLS playoff preview: Determining the true MLS Cup contenders
Which teams are legitimate contenders to win MLS Cup according to recent history?
The Major League Soccer playoffs are known for their chaos and unpredictability. Two Supporters’ Shield winners have lifted MLS Cup in the last decade, and only five No. 1 seeds have reached the final since 2009. Despite the annual series of upsets, there are still some characteristics recent MLS Cup winners have in common. What follows is an attempt to determine what those characteristics are.
In order to do so, a set of criteria was created using five pieces of data from the regular season — goals scored, goals allowed, points per game, expected goals difference and where a team’s top player ranked in the league in goal involvements per 90 minutes. The past five MLS Cup winners met each of the following criteria. If the pattern is to continue, one of five teams will be lifting MLS Cup on Dec. 9.
This formula produced two teams in 2022. Both ended up playing in MLS Cup.
1. At least 1.53 goals per game
The 2019 Seattle Sounders had the least potent attack of the five most recent champions with 52 goals in the 34-game regular season. The Columbus Crew had a similar offensive output in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Atlanta United (2018) was the only one of the five teams to reach the 70-goal mark.
Teams eliminated: Charlotte FC, FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo, Nashville SC, New York Red Bulls, Real Salt Lake, San Jose Earthquakes, Seattle Sounders, Sporting Kansas City
Teams that meet criteria: Atlanta United, Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, LAFC, New England Revolution, Orlando City, Philadelphia Union, St. Louis City, Vancouver Whitecaps
2. No more than 1.44 goals allowed per game
The 2019 Sounders also had the worst defensive record of the last five MLS Cup winners, conceding 49 goals. Atlanta United was next on the list with 44 goals allowed in 2018. The other three championship teams conceded fewer than 1.13 goals per game.
Teams eliminated: Atlanta United
Previously eliminated teams that meet the criteria: FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo, Nashville SC, New York Red Bulls, San Jose Earthquakes
Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, LAFC, New England Revolution, Orlando City, Philadelphia Union, St. Louis City, Vancouver Whitecaps
3. At least 1.50 points per game
Every team but one to reach MLS Cup in the past five seasons has been a top-four seed. The only No. 4 seed to win the final was NYCFC in 2021, who averaged exactly 1.5 points per game.
Teams eliminated: Vancouver Whitecaps
Previously eliminated teams that meet the criteria: Houston Dynamo
Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, LAFC, New England Revolution, Orlando City, Philadelphia Union, St. Louis City
4. An expected goals difference per 90 minutes of -0.04 or better
Since fbref.com began tracking expected goals data in 2018, four of the five MLS Cup winners finished the regular season with a positive expected goals difference per 90 minutes. The exception was Seattle in 2019.
Teams eliminated: New England Revolution, St. Louis City
Previously eliminated teams that meet the criteria: Atlanta United, Houston Dynamo, FC Dallas, Nashville SC, New York Red Bulls, Seattle Sounders, Vancouver Whitecaps
Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, LAFC, Orlando City, Philadelphia Union
5. Top-16 player in goal involvements per 90 minutes
It’s nearly impossible to get through the playoffs without an elite attacking player, which is why MLS Cup routinely features some of the biggest names in the league. Four of the last five winners had a player who ranked in the top 10 in goal involvements per 90 minutes among players logging at least 1,000 minutes. The teams that didn’t were the 2019 Sounders — who had Jordan Morris at 15 and Raúl Ruidíaz at 25 — and LAFC last season — who had Carlos Vela at 16 and Cristian Arango at 21.
Teams eliminated: None
Previously eliminated teams that meet the criteria: Atlanta United, Nashville SC, New England Revolution, St. Louis City, Vancouver Whitecaps
Teams that meet criteria: Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, LAFC, Orlando City, Philadelphia Union